FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kresimir

Krizmanic

CBCroatia · OFI Crete

№ 585858Emerging €1M +0.16

Player dossierSuper League

KresimirKrizmanic

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
OFI Crete
League
Super League
Nationality
Croatia
Age
25
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Krizmanic at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Krizmanic during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €1M▲ +0.05B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,693
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
30/30
Min / app
90
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Krizmanic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kresimir Krizmanic's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals46thAssists47thMinutes97thStarts81stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2018
Peak
€1.8M
Jun 2022
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MOFI CreteValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, OFI Crete. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-25€50kHNK Gorica U19
2019-03-11€50kHNK Gorica
2019-09-16€100kHNK Gorica
2019-12-27€400kHNK Gorica
2020-04-08€350kHNK Gorica
2020-07-27€350kHNK Gorica
2020-12-28€600kHNK Gorica
2021-06-10€1.2MHNK Gorica
2021-12-30€1.5MHNK Gorica
2022-06-06€1.8MHNK Gorica
2022-11-08€1.8MHNK Gorica
2023-06-06€1.8MHNK Gorica
2023-12-18€1.8MHNK Gorica
2024-06-04€1.5MHNK Gorica
2024-12-23€1.3MHNK Gorica
2025-03-31€1MHNK Gorica
2025-06-09€1MHNK Gorica
2025-12-12€1MOFI Crete
2026-06-04€1.2MOFI Crete

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.159

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 69% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Krizmanic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).