Danny da
Costa
CBGermany · 1.FSV Mainz 05
Player dossierBundesliga
Danny daCosta
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- 1.FSV Mainz 05
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Costa at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Costa during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 39% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 62
- Minutes
- 4,978
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 58/62
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Costa…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
2,968 this player1,687 defender median88th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jan 2011
- Peak
- €15M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €1.2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 42
- 9 club changes
May 2026: €1.2M, 1.FSV Mainz 05. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-01-12 | €100k | Bayer 04 Leverkusen U19 |
| 2011-03-02 | €200k | Bayer 04 Leverkusen U19 |
| 2011-07-15 | €350k | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2012-01-23 | €350k | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2012-03-05 | €500k | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2012-06-29 | €1M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2013-01-04 | €1M | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| 2013-06-29 | €1.3M | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| 2014-01-20 | €1M | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| 2014-06-30 | €1M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2015-01-13 | €1M | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| 2015-07-01 | €1M | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| 2016-02-15 | €1M | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| 2016-07-22 | €1.8M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2017-02-07 | €1.5M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2017-06-19 | €1M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2017-12-28 | €1M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2018-04-04 | €3M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2018-06-05 | €3.5M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2018-10-22 | €5M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2018-12-18 | €8M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2019-03-06 | €12M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2019-06-05 | €15M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2019-12-17 | €15M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2020-03-11 | €10M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2020-04-08 | €8M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2020-09-16 | €7M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2021-02-10 | €5M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2021-06-09 | €6M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2021-10-07 | €4M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2021-12-22 | €3.5M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2022-06-09 | €2.3M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2022-11-09 | €2M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2023-06-22 | €1.8M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2023-12-14 | €1.5M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2024-05-29 | €1.2M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2024-10-09 | €800k | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2024-12-20 | €800k | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2025-03-27 | €1.5M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2025-06-05 | €1.5M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2025-12-19 | €1.2M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2026-05-27 | €1.2M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.487
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 10% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Costa appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- FernandesGKHamburger SV · Bundesliga€1.2M
- ZivzivadzeCF1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga€1.2M
- StenzelRBVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€1.2M
- MüllerGKSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€1.2M
- BlindCBGirona FC · defenders€1.2M
- AlonsoCBCelta de Vigo · defenders€1.2M
- LykogiannisLBBologna FC 1909 · defenders€1.2M
- StephensCBSouthampton FC · defenders€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).