FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of James McAtee

James

McAtee

AMEngland · Nottingham Forest

№ 583199Elite €15.5M +0.15

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JamesMcAtee

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Nottingham Forest
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values McAtee at €18M. Model A, which never saw McAtee during training, estimates €15.5M: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €15.5M▲ +0.52B €10.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
1,774
Goals
8
Assists
2
Started
20/51
Min / app
35
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McAtee…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €15.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

James McAtee's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 31st, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 32nd, European club minutes 99th98thGoals53rdAssists31stMinutes11thStarts32ndRecent99thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

40% this player0% midfielder median99th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Oct 2021
Peak
€25M
Oct 2025
Model target
€18M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
5 club changes
Jun 2026€18MNottingham ForestValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €18M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-05€500kManchester City U23
2022-03-29€3MManchester City U23
2022-09-14€4MSheffield United
2022-10-27€5MSheffield United
2023-03-24€6MSheffield United
2023-06-01€12MManchester City U21
2023-12-19€12MSheffield United
2024-05-27€12MSheffield United
2024-12-16€14MManchester City
2025-03-18€18MManchester City
2025-05-30€20MManchester City
2025-10-17€25MNottingham Forest
2025-12-09€23MNottingham Forest
2026-03-09€20MNottingham Forest
2026-06-03€18MNottingham Forest

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.148

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 50% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where McAtee appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).