FairValue

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Aleksandr

Golovin

AMRussia · AS Monaco

№ 263918Elite €11.3M +0.46

Player dossierLigue 1

AleksandrGolovin

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
AS Monaco
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Russia
Age
30
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Golovin at €18M. Model A, which never saw Golovin during training, estimates €11.3M: the market value is 59% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €11.3M▲ +0.84B €7.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
3,954
Goals
8
Assists
7
Started
47/61
Min / app
65
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Golovin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €11.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Aleksandr Golovin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 79th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 69th, European club minutes 93rd79thGoals74thAssists73rdMinutes65thStarts69thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

27% this player0% midfielder median93rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2013
Peak
€30M
Sept 2018
Model target
€18M
Jun 2026
Valuations
37
2 club changes
Jun 2026€18MAS MonacoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €18M, AS Monaco. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-08-19€50kCSKA Moscow II
2015-05-06€100kCSKA Moscow II
2015-07-24€350kCSKA Moscow
2015-08-25€400kCSKA Moscow
2016-01-06€500kCSKA Moscow
2016-06-01€3MCSKA Moscow
2016-07-01€2MCSKA Moscow
2016-10-16€2.5MCSKA Moscow
2016-12-27€3MCSKA Moscow
2017-06-01€5MCSKA Moscow
2017-07-01€6MCSKA Moscow
2017-10-02€8MCSKA Moscow
2017-12-23€10MCSKA Moscow
2018-06-06€18MCSKA Moscow
2018-07-15€25MCSKA Moscow
2018-09-06€30MAS Monaco
2018-12-17€30MAS Monaco
2019-06-03€25MAS Monaco
2019-12-19€25MAS Monaco
2020-04-08€20MAS Monaco
2020-10-12€20MAS Monaco
2021-01-07€19MAS Monaco
2021-04-09€23MAS Monaco
2021-05-26€28MAS Monaco
2021-12-16€25MAS Monaco
2022-05-30€25MAS Monaco
2022-11-02€22MAS Monaco
2023-03-27€25MAS Monaco
2023-06-27€28MAS Monaco
2023-10-16€30MAS Monaco
2023-12-18€30MAS Monaco
2024-06-03€30MAS Monaco
2024-12-10€30MAS Monaco
2025-03-24€25MAS Monaco
2025-06-03€20MAS Monaco
2025-12-15€18MAS Monaco
2026-06-01€18MAS Monaco

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.465

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 82% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Golovin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).