FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Samuel

Iling-Junior

LMEngland · Pisa Sporting Club

№ 581672Established €4.5M +0.37

Player dossierPremier League

SamuelIling-Junior

LMLeft MidfieldMidfield

Club
Pisa Sporting Club
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
22
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Iling-Junior at €6.5M. Model A, which never saw Iling-Junior during training, estimates €4.5M: the market value is 44% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.37A €4.5M▲ +1.50B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
655
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
5/21
Min / app
31
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Iling-Junior…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6.5MModel A €4.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Samuel Iling-Junior's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 5th, Starts 3rd, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 99th92ndGoals8thAssists5thMinutes3rdStarts4thRecent99thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

53% this player0% midfielder median99th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€700k
Jun 2022
Peak
€13M
Jun 2024
Model target
€6.5M
May 2026
Valuations
11
5 club changes
May 2026€6.5MPisa Sporting ClubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6.5M, Pisa Sporting Club. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-23€700kJuventus Primavera
2022-12-19€3.5MJuventus FC
2023-06-15€9MJuventus FC
2023-12-20€10MJuventus FC
2024-03-12€12MJuventus FC
2024-06-05€13MJuventus FC
2024-12-18€11MBologna FC 1909
2025-05-27€10MMiddlesbrough FC
2025-12-03€10MWest Bromwich Albion
2026-03-24€8MPisa Sporting Club
2026-05-29€6.5MPisa Sporting Club

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.367

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 26% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€6.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Iling-Junior appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).