FairValue

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Gianluca

Gaetano

DMItaly · Cagliari Calcio

№ 358008Established €6M +0.07

Player dossierSerie A

GianlucaGaetano

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Cagliari Calcio
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
26
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gaetano at €6.5M. Model A, which never saw Gaetano during training, estimates €6M: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €6M▲ +0.43B €4.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
3,168
Goals
5
Assists
8
Started
33/65
Min / app
49
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gaetano…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6.5MModel A €6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Gianluca Gaetano's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 70th, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 22nd, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 30th70thGoals89thAssists60thMinutes22ndStarts66thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.09 midfielder median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
Jun 2019
Peak
€6.5M
May 2026
Model target
€6.5M
May 2026
Valuations
19
4 club changes
May 2026€6.5MCagliari CalcioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6.5M, Cagliari Calcio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-17€800kNapoli Primavera
2019-12-12€800kSSC Napoli
2020-04-08€725kUS Cremonese
2020-08-21€900kUS Cremonese
2021-02-22€1.1MUS Cremonese
2021-06-24€1.8MUS Cremonese
2021-12-29€2MUS Cremonese
2022-06-06€4.5MUS Cremonese
2022-11-11€4.5MSSC Napoli
2023-06-15€4.5MSSC Napoli
2023-12-20€4.5MSSC Napoli
2024-03-12€5MCagliari Calcio
2024-06-05€6MCagliari Calcio
2024-12-18€5MCagliari Calcio
2025-03-25€4MCagliari Calcio
2025-06-17€4MCagliari Calcio
2025-12-23€4MCagliari Calcio
2026-03-24€5MCagliari Calcio
2026-05-29€6.5MCagliari Calcio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.072

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 54% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gaetano appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).