FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Martin Baturina

Martin

Baturina

AMCroatia · Como 1907

№ 580451World Class €28.8M +0.04

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierSerie A

MartinBaturina

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Como 1907
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
23
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Baturina at €30M. Model A, which never saw Baturina during training, estimates €28.8M: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €28.8M▲ +0.91B €12.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
2,617
Goals
10
Assists
6
Started
30/44
Min / app
59
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Baturina…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €28.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Martin Baturina's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 95th, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 95th95thGoals85thAssists50thMinutes48thStarts60thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% midfielder median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Dec 2020
Peak
€30M
May 2026
Model target
€30M
May 2026
Valuations
16
3 club changes
May 2026€30MComo 1907Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €30M, Como 1907. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-12-28€400kGNK Dinamo Zagreb U19
2021-06-10€600kGNK Dinamo Zagreb II
2021-12-30€1MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2022-03-22€2MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2022-06-06€3MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2022-11-08€6.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2023-06-06€15MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2023-12-18€18MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2024-06-04€20MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2024-12-23€20MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2025-03-31€22MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2025-06-09€22MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2025-10-07€20MComo 1907
2025-12-23€18MComo 1907
2026-03-24€24MComo 1907
2026-05-29€30MComo 1907

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.039

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 91% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Baturina appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).