FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Rodrigo Zalazar

Rodrigo

Zalazar

AMUruguay · SC Braga

№ 606752World Class €18.8M +0.47

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

RodrigoZalazar

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
SC Braga
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
26
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Zalazar at €30M. Model A, which never saw Zalazar during training, estimates €18.8M: the market value is 60% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €38.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.47A €18.8M▼ −0.25B €38.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
5,222
Goals
30
Assists
17
Started
62/74
Min / app
71
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zalazar…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €18.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Rodrigo Zalazar's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 97th99thGoals95thAssists89thMinutes77thStarts94thRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.52 this player0.08 midfielder median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2018
Peak
€30M
May 2026
Model target
€30M
May 2026
Valuations
23
5 club changes
May 2026€30MSC BragaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €30M, SC Braga. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-31€50kAtlético Malagueño
2019-01-31€50kAtlético Malagueño
2019-02-19€50kAtlético Malagueño
2019-06-29€50kAtlético Malagueño
2020-01-15€50kKorona Kielce
2020-07-08€250kEintracht Frankfurt
2020-11-18€1MFC St. Pauli
2021-02-08€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2021-03-29€2MFC St. Pauli
2021-06-16€2.5MFC St. Pauli
2021-12-15€2.5MFC Schalke 04
2022-06-16€3.5MFC Schalke 04
2022-11-09€3.5MFC Schalke 04
2023-06-22€4MFC Schalke 04
2023-12-27€6MSC Braga
2024-03-08€8MSC Braga
2024-06-06€12MSC Braga
2024-10-08€16MSC Braga
2024-12-19€16MSC Braga
2025-05-30€18MSC Braga
2025-12-18€20MSC Braga
2026-03-19€22MSC Braga
2026-05-28€30MSC Braga

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.468

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 96% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zalazar appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).