FairValue

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Noah

Naujoks

AMNetherlands · Excelsior Rotterdam

№ 578544Emerging €1.4M +0.08

Player dossierEredivisie

NoahNaujoks

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Excelsior Rotterdam
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
24
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Naujoks at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Naujoks during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 8% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €1.4M▼ −0.44B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,335
Goals
10
Assists
1
Started
29/31
Min / app
75
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Naujoks…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Noah Naujoks's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 97th, Assists per 90 23rd, Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 30th97thGoals23rdAssists44thMinutes91stStarts74thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.39 this player0.08 midfielder median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2022
Peak
€1.5M
May 2026
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
11
1 club change
May 2026€1.5MExcelsior RotterdamValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Excelsior Rotterdam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-14€200kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-11-11€400kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-06-23€450kExcelsior Rotterdam
2023-12-15€400kExcelsior Rotterdam
2024-05-31€450kExcelsior Rotterdam
2024-10-14€500kExcelsior Rotterdam
2024-12-10€600kExcelsior Rotterdam
2025-06-09€600kExcelsior Rotterdam
2025-12-02€800kExcelsior Rotterdam
2026-03-11€1MExcelsior Rotterdam
2026-05-28€1.5MExcelsior Rotterdam

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.078

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 54% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Naujoks appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).