FairValue

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Pedro

Brazão

RWPortugal · Bodrum FK

№ 577590Emerging €363k +1.20

Player dossierSüper Lig

PedroBrazão

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Bodrum FK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Portugal
Age
23
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Brazão at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Brazão during training, estimates €363k: the market value is 231% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €486k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.20A €363k▲ +0.90B €486k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
930
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
10/24
Min / app
39
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Brazão…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €363k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Pedro Brazão's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 13th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 28th13thGoals6thAssists17thMinutes23rdStarts11thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Aug 2020
Peak
€2M
Dec 2021
Model target
€1.2M
Dec 2025
Valuations
19
3 club changes
Dec 2025€1.2MBodrum FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.2M, Bodrum FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-03€400kOGC Nice
2020-12-28€400kFC Lausanne-Sport
2021-04-15€1.2MFC Lausanne-Sport
2021-06-23€1.2MFC Lausanne-Sport
2021-12-27€2MFC Famalicão
2022-05-31€2MFC Famalicão
2022-11-01€2MFC Famalicão
2023-03-02€1.5MFC Famalicão
2023-06-16€1MFC Famalicão
2023-10-20€850kBodrum FK
2023-12-29€700kBodrum FK
2024-03-26€700kBodrum FK
2024-06-13€700kBodrum FK
2024-10-04€650kBodrum FK
2024-12-23€800kBodrum FK
2025-03-20€800kBodrum FK
2025-06-18€800kBodrum FK
2025-10-08€1MBodrum FK
2025-12-29€1.2MBodrum FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.196

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 45% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Brazão appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).