Hrvoje
Smolcic
CBCroatia · Kocaelispor
Player dossierSüper Lig
HrvojeSmolcic
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Kocaelispor
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Croatia
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Smolcic at €2M. Model A, which never saw Smolcic during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 62% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.62. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 26
- Minutes
- 2,229
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 26/26
- Min / app
- 86
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Smolcic…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player83% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Mar 2019
- Peak
- €5M
- Mar 2023
- Model target
- €2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €2M, Kocaelispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-11 | €50k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2019-09-16 | €150k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2019-12-27 | €850k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2020-04-08 | €775k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2020-07-27 | €900k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2020-12-28 | €1.2M | HNK Rijeka |
| 2021-06-10 | €1.2M | HNK Rijeka |
| 2021-12-30 | €3M | HNK Rijeka |
| 2022-06-06 | €3M | HNK Rijeka |
| 2022-11-09 | €3M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2023-03-29 | €5M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2023-06-22 | €4M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2023-12-14 | €4M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2024-05-29 | €3M | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2024-12-17 | €2.5M | LASK |
| 2025-06-06 | €2M | LASK |
| 2025-12-17 | €2M | Kocaelispor |
| 2026-05-21 | €2M | Kocaelispor |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.484
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 61% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Smolcic appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GündoğanCMGalatasaray · Süper Lig€2M
- KocukGKSamsunspor · Süper Lig€2M
- NtchamCMSamsunspor · Süper Lig€2M
- PaalLBAntalyaspor · Süper Lig€2M
- HummelsCBAS Roma · defenders€2M
- GünterLBSC Freiburg · defenders€2M
- KohrCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€2M
- KayembeLBKRC Genk · defenders€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).