Ivan
Smolcic
RBCroatia · Como 1907
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
IvanSmolcic
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- Como 1907
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Croatia
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 181 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Serie AReading the valuation
The market values Smolcic at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Smolcic during training, estimates €9.5M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.70. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 46
- Minutes
- 2,846
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 31/46
- Min / app
- 62
- Cards
- 10Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Smolcic…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
11% this player0% defender median73rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Jun 2021
- Peak
- €3.5M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €3.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €3.5M, Como 1907. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-30 | €150k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2021-12-30 | €50k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2022-03-22 | €150k | NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac |
| 2022-06-06 | €300k | NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac |
| 2022-11-08 | €400k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2023-06-06 | €400k | HNK Rijeka |
| 2023-12-18 | €1.2M | HNK Rijeka |
| 2024-06-04 | €2M | HNK Rijeka |
| 2024-12-23 | €2M | HNK Rijeka |
| 2025-06-17 | €1.8M | Como 1907 |
| 2025-12-23 | €2.5M | Como 1907 |
| 2026-05-29 | €3.5M | Como 1907 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.995
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 34% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 63% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Smolcic appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ModrićCMAC Milan · Serie A€3.5M
- GeaGKACF Fiorentina · Serie A€3.5M
- FüllkrugCFAC Milan · Serie A€3.5M
- SpinazzolaLBSSC Napoli · Serie A€3.5M
- DunkCBBrighton & Hove Albion · defenders€3.5M
- KempfCBComo 1907 · defenders€3.5M
- KlostermannCBRB Leipzig · defenders€3.5M
- OlazaLBFC Krasnodar · defenders€3.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).