Niclas
Füllkrug
CFGermany · AC Milan
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
NiclasFüllkrug
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- AC Milan
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Serie AReading the valuation
The market values Füllkrug at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Füllkrug during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 9% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 50
- Minutes
- 2,027
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 17/50
- Min / app
- 41
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Füllkrug…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
4% this player0% attacker median63rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €75k
- Jul 2011
- Peak
- €15M
- Aug 2018
- Model target
- €3.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 48
- 9 club changes
May 2026: €3.5M, AC Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-07-02 | €75k | SV Werder Bremen II |
| 2011-08-17 | €100k | SV Werder Bremen II |
| 2012-01-10 | €200k | SV Werder Bremen II |
| 2012-03-05 | €400k | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2012-06-29 | €800k | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2012-08-26 | €1M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2012-10-23 | €1.3M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2013-01-13 | €1.3M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2013-06-30 | €1.3M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2014-01-20 | €1M | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
| 2014-06-30 | €700k | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2015-01-13 | €900k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2015-07-01 | €900k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2016-02-11 | €1M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2016-03-22 | €1.3M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2016-07-22 | €2.3M | Hannover 96 |
| 2017-01-23 | €1.8M | Hannover 96 |
| 2017-06-27 | €2M | Hannover 96 |
| 2017-12-28 | €3M | Hannover 96 |
| 2018-04-04 | €5M | Hannover 96 |
| 2018-06-05 | €8M | Hannover 96 |
| 2018-08-22 | €15M | Hannover 96 |
| 2018-12-18 | €15M | Hannover 96 |
| 2019-06-05 | €8M | Hannover 96 |
| 2019-12-17 | €6.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2020-03-11 | €4.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2020-04-08 | €3.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2020-11-26 | €5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2021-02-10 | €5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2021-06-09 | €4M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2021-10-13 | €1.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2021-12-15 | €1.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2022-03-23 | €2.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2022-06-16 | €3M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2022-09-21 | €4M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2022-11-09 | €5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2022-12-23 | €10M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2023-03-29 | €13M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2023-06-22 | €13M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2023-12-14 | €13M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2024-03-27 | €15M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2024-05-29 | €15M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2024-12-16 | €15M | West Ham United |
| 2025-03-18 | €12M | West Ham United |
| 2025-05-30 | €10M | West Ham United |
| 2025-12-09 | €8M | West Ham United |
| 2026-03-24 | €5M | AC Milan |
| 2026-05-29 | €3.5M | AC Milan |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.089
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 34% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 56% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Füllkrug appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ModrićCMAC Milan · Serie A€3.5M
- GeaGKACF Fiorentina · Serie A€3.5M
- SpinazzolaLBSSC Napoli · Serie A€3.5M
- KempfCBComo 1907 · Serie A€3.5M
- IngsCFSheffield United · attackers€3.5M
- BernardeschiRWBologna FC 1909 · attackers€3.5M
- TabakovicCFBorussia Mönchengladbach · attackers€3.5M
- YaremchukCFOlympique Lyon · attackers€3.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).