FairValue

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German

Onugkha

CFRussia · Kayserispor

№ 568318Emerging €1.5M +0.17

Player dossierSüper Lig

GermanOnugkha

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Kayserispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Russia
Age
29
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Onugkha at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Onugkha during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 18% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.17A €1.5M▼ −0.24B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
3,148
Goals
18
Assists
1
Started
36/44
Min / app
72
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Onugkha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

German Onugkha's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 12th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 28th90thGoals12thAssists69thMinutes85thStarts70thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.51 this player0.26 attacker median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2018
Peak
€1.8M
Jun 2025
Model target
€1.8M
May 2026
Valuations
21
9 club changes
May 2026€1.8MKayserisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.8M, Kayserispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-02-25€50kVolgar Astrakhan
2018-06-06€150kVolgar Astrakhan
2018-10-15€250kFC Krasnodar 2
2018-12-20€350kFC Krasnodar 2
2019-06-14€350kFC Krasnodar 2
2019-12-23€450kFC Krasnodar 2
2020-04-08€350kFC Krasnodar 2
2020-06-29€350kFC Krasnodar 2
2020-12-29€700kPFK Tambov
2021-06-04€650kVejle Boldklub
2021-12-29€700kRubin Kazan
2022-06-02€500kRubin Kazan
2022-12-20€400kIhud Bnei Sakhnin
2023-06-26€400kVejle Boldklub
2023-09-19€600kVejle Boldklub
2023-12-21€850kVejle Boldklub
2024-06-10€1.7MVejle Boldklub
2024-12-09€1.5MFC Copenhagen
2025-06-16€1.8MVejle Boldklub
2025-12-17€1.8MKayserispor
2026-05-21€1.8MKayserispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.169

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 60% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 43% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Onugkha appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).