FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Nikolaos

Christogeorgos

GKGreece · OFI Crete

№ 567668Emerging €1.2M −0.17

Player dossierSuper League

NikolaosChristogeorgos

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
OFI Crete
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
26
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Christogeorgos at €1M. Model A, which never saw Christogeorgos during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.17A €1.2M▼ −0.78B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
4,703
Started
53/53
Min / app
89
Cards
2Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Christogeorgos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Nikolaos Christogeorgos's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 32nd73rdMinutes62ndStarts61stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,703 this player2,790 goalkeeper median73rd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2019
Peak
€1M
Jun 2026
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1MOFI CreteValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, OFI Crete. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-23€50kPanathinaikos
2019-12-18€50kPanathinaikos
2020-08-04€100kPanathinaikos
2021-02-12€100kPanathinaikos
2021-05-30€150kPanathinaikos
2021-12-28€200kPanathinaikos B
2022-06-27€200kPanathinaikos B
2023-02-27€200kOFI Crete
2023-05-22€200kOFI Crete
2023-12-20€200kOFI Crete
2024-05-30€200kOFI Crete
2024-12-18€400kOFI Crete
2025-03-14€600kOFI Crete
2025-05-23€800kOFI Crete
2025-12-12€800kOFI Crete
2026-06-04€1MOFI Crete

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.170

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 67% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 48% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Christogeorgos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).