FairValue

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Igor

Akinfeev

GKRussia · CSKA Moscow

№ 15570Emerging €234k +1.45

Player dossierPremier Liga

IgorAkinfeev

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
CSKA Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
40
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Akinfeev at €1M. Model A, which never saw Akinfeev during training, estimates €234k: the market value is 327% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×4.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €130k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.45A €234k▲ +2.04B €130k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
4,561
Started
51/51
Min / app
89
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Akinfeev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €234k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Igor Akinfeev's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 57th, European club minutes 32nd72ndMinutes62ndStarts57thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,561 this player2,790 goalkeeper median72nd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.5M
Oct 2004
Peak
€20M
Dec 2009
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
42
0 club changes
May 2026€1MCSKA MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, CSKA Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2004-10-04€1.5MCSKA Moscow
2005-11-30€5MCSKA Moscow
2007-03-29€9.5MCSKA Moscow
2008-03-01€11MCSKA Moscow
2008-09-05€14MCSKA Moscow
2008-12-02€16MCSKA Moscow
2009-02-26€17MCSKA Moscow
2009-12-14€20MCSKA Moscow
2010-11-27€17MCSKA Moscow
2011-07-15€18MCSKA Moscow
2011-12-15€17MCSKA Moscow
2012-07-02€17MCSKA Moscow
2013-01-13€18MCSKA Moscow
2013-06-19€20MCSKA Moscow
2014-03-03€20MCSKA Moscow
2014-07-31€16MCSKA Moscow
2015-02-23€17MCSKA Moscow
2015-06-18€15MCSKA Moscow
2016-01-06€14MCSKA Moscow
2016-06-01€14MCSKA Moscow
2016-12-27€12MCSKA Moscow
2017-07-01€11MCSKA Moscow
2017-12-23€10MCSKA Moscow
2018-06-06€10MCSKA Moscow
2018-07-15€12MCSKA Moscow
2018-12-20€12MCSKA Moscow
2019-06-14€10MCSKA Moscow
2019-12-23€8MCSKA Moscow
2020-04-08€6.5MCSKA Moscow
2020-07-29€5MCSKA Moscow
2020-12-29€4MCSKA Moscow
2021-06-02€3.5MCSKA Moscow
2021-12-29€3MCSKA Moscow
2022-06-02€2.5MCSKA Moscow
2022-11-21€2MCSKA Moscow
2023-06-14€2MCSKA Moscow
2023-12-13€1.5MCSKA Moscow
2024-06-04€1MCSKA Moscow
2024-12-12€1MCSKA Moscow
2025-06-04€1MCSKA Moscow
2025-12-16€1MCSKA Moscow
2026-05-26€1MCSKA Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.452

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 44% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 48% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Akinfeev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).