FairValue

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Simon

Mignolet

GKBelgium · Club Brugge KV

№ 50219Emerging €480k +0.73

Player dossierPro League

SimonMignolet

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
38
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mignolet at €1M. Model A, which never saw Mignolet during training, estimates €480k: the market value is 109% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €885k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.73A €480k▲ +0.12B €885k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
5,602
Started
64/64
Min / app
88
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mignolet…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €480k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Simon Mignolet's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 95th83rdMinutes62ndStarts54thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

31% this player0% goalkeeper median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2007
Peak
€14M
Aug 2014
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
40
3 club changes
Jun 2026€1MClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2007-10-26€100kSint-Truidense VV
2008-10-09€400kSint-Truidense VV
2009-07-08€600kSint-Truidense VV
2009-09-04€900kSint-Truidense VV
2010-01-25€1.8MSint-Truidense VV
2010-06-29€2.5MSint-Truidense VV
2011-02-01€4MSunderland AFC
2011-08-08€5MSunderland AFC
2012-02-06€5.5MSunderland AFC
2012-06-24€5.5MSunderland AFC
2013-01-28€5.5MSunderland AFC
2013-07-02€10MLiverpool FC
2014-01-15€12MLiverpool FC
2014-08-12€14MLiverpool FC
2015-02-12€12MLiverpool FC
2015-07-01€12MLiverpool FC
2016-02-09€12MLiverpool FC
2016-06-01€12MLiverpool FC
2016-08-01€12MLiverpool FC
2017-02-20€10MLiverpool FC
2017-06-28€12MLiverpool FC
2018-01-02€12MLiverpool FC
2018-05-28€10MLiverpool FC
2018-12-19€9MLiverpool FC
2019-03-05€8MLiverpool FC
2019-06-13€8MLiverpool FC
2019-12-13€10MClub Brugge KV
2020-04-08€8MClub Brugge KV
2020-10-16€9MClub Brugge KV
2021-05-26€8MClub Brugge KV
2022-01-06€6.5MClub Brugge KV
2022-04-12€3.5MClub Brugge KV
2022-11-04€5MClub Brugge KV
2023-06-09€3.2MClub Brugge KV
2023-12-19€2.8MClub Brugge KV
2024-06-04€2MClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€1.5MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€1.2MClub Brugge KV
2025-12-10€1MClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€1MClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.735

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 27% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 48% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mignolet appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).