FairValue

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Portrait of Michael Olise

Michael

Olise

RWFrance · Bayern Munich

№ 566723World Class €127M +0.16

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

MichaelOlise

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Bayern Munich
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Olise at €150M. Model A, which never saw Olise during training, estimates €127M: the market value is 18% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €78.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €127M▲ +0.65B €78.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
106
Minutes
7,767
Goals
42
Assists
53
Started
87/106
Min / app
73
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Olise…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150MModel A €127M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Michael Olise's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 100th, Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 95th86thGoals100thAssists100thMinutes85thStarts100thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.61 this player0.15 attacker median100th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Oct 2019
Peak
€150M
May 2026
Model target
€150M
May 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
May 2026€150MBayern MunichValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-17€200kReading FC U18
2020-02-27€900kReading FC
2020-04-08€800kReading FC
2020-10-15€4.5MReading FC
2020-12-22€8MReading FC
2021-03-10€12MReading FC
2021-06-30€15MReading FC
2021-12-23€18MCrystal Palace
2022-03-29€22MCrystal Palace
2022-06-15€22MCrystal Palace
2022-11-03€22MCrystal Palace
2023-03-16€27MCrystal Palace
2023-06-20€38MCrystal Palace
2023-10-09€50MCrystal Palace
2023-12-19€50MCrystal Palace
2024-05-27€55MCrystal Palace
2024-10-09€65MBayern Munich
2024-12-20€65MBayern Munich
2025-03-27€80MBayern Munich
2025-06-05€100MBayern Munich
2025-10-14€130MBayern Munich
2025-12-19€130MBayern Munich
2026-03-20€140MBayern Munich
2026-05-27€150MBayern Munich

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.163

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

The highest observed value among 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€150MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

4th highest observed value among 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€150MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Olise appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).