FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Bart Verbruggen

Bart

Verbruggen

GKNetherlands · Brighton & Hove Albion

№ 565093World Class €38.8M +0.03

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

BartVerbruggen

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Brighton & Hove Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
23
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Verbruggen at €40M. Model A, which never saw Verbruggen during training, estimates €38.8M: the market value is 3% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €37.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.03A €38.8M▲ +0.07B €37.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
78
Minutes
7,080
Started
78/78
Min / app
91
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Verbruggen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €38.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Bart Verbruggen's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 32nd94thMinutes62ndStarts90thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,080 this player2,790 goalkeeper median94th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2020
Peak
€40M
Mar 2026
Model target
€40M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
2 club changes
Jun 2026€40MBrighton & Hove AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €40M, Brighton & Hove Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-12€25kNAC Breda U19
2020-10-16€250kRSC Anderlecht
2021-06-07€750kRSC Anderlecht
2022-01-06€750kRSC Anderlecht
2022-04-12€750kRSC Anderlecht
2022-11-04€750kRSC Anderlecht
2023-03-22€5MRSC Anderlecht
2023-06-09€10MRSC Anderlecht
2023-10-09€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-10-01€22MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€25MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€30MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-10-17€35MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-12-09€35MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-03-09€40MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-03€40MBrighton & Hove Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.030

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 83% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Joint 3rd highest observed value among 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Verbruggen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).