Diogo
Costa
GKPortugal · FC Porto
Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)
Player dossierLiga Portugal
DiogoCosta
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- FC Porto
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Costa at €40M. Model A, which never saw Costa during training, estimates €27.8M: the market value is 44% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €25.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 88
- Minutes
- 7,887
- Started
- 88/88
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Costa…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
7,887 this player2,790 goalkeeper median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Sept 2016
- Peak
- €45M
- Mar 2023
- Model target
- €40M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 26
- 1 club change
May 2026: €40M, FC Porto. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-09-30 | €25k | FC Porto B |
| 2017-06-30 | €100k | FC Porto B |
| 2017-09-08 | €500k | FC Porto B |
| 2018-02-23 | €1M | FC Porto B |
| 2018-06-29 | €2M | FC Porto B |
| 2019-02-12 | €3M | FC Porto B |
| 2019-06-07 | €4M | FC Porto B |
| 2019-12-30 | €5M | FC Porto |
| 2020-04-08 | €4.5M | FC Porto |
| 2020-08-17 | €5M | FC Porto |
| 2021-01-28 | €6M | FC Porto |
| 2021-05-21 | €6M | FC Porto |
| 2021-09-21 | €10M | FC Porto |
| 2021-12-27 | €16M | FC Porto |
| 2022-05-31 | €25M | FC Porto |
| 2022-11-01 | €35M | FC Porto |
| 2023-03-02 | €45M | FC Porto |
| 2023-06-16 | €45M | FC Porto |
| 2023-12-27 | €45M | FC Porto |
| 2024-06-06 | €40M | FC Porto |
| 2024-07-18 | €45M | FC Porto |
| 2024-12-19 | €40M | FC Porto |
| 2025-03-31 | €38M | FC Porto |
| 2025-05-30 | €40M | FC Porto |
| 2025-12-18 | €40M | FC Porto |
| 2026-05-28 | €40M | FC Porto |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.365
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Joint 6th highest observed value among 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Joint 3rd highest observed value among 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Costa appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- TrincãoAMSporting CP · Liga Portugal€40M
- InácioCBSporting CP · Liga Portugal€40M
- DiomandeCBSporting CP · Liga Portugal€42M
- QuendaRWSporting CP · Liga Portugal€42M
- KobelGKBorussia Dortmund · goalkeepers€40M
- VerbruggenGKBrighton & Hove Albion · goalkeepers€40M
- DonnarummaGKManchester City · goalkeepers€45M
- GarcíaGKFC Barcelona · goalkeepers€45M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).