FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Gianluigi Donnarumma

Gianluigi

Donnarumma

GKItaly · Manchester City

№ 315858World Class €42.1M +0.07

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

GianluigiDonnarumma

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Italy
Age
27
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Donnarumma at €45M. Model A, which never saw Donnarumma during training, estimates €42.1M: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €31.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €42.1M▲ +0.35B €31.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
90
Minutes
8,062
Started
90/90
Min / app
90
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Donnarumma…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €45M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €45MModel A €42.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Gianluigi Donnarumma's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 97th98thMinutes62ndStarts99thRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,500 this player1,560 goalkeeper median99th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Mar 2015
Peak
€65M
Jul 2021
Model target
€45M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
3 club changes
Jun 2026€45MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €45M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-03-02€300kMilan Primavera
2015-06-17€500kMilan Primavera
2015-11-05€1.5MAC Milan
2016-01-04€5MAC Milan
2016-04-01€8MAC Milan
2016-07-15€10MAC Milan
2016-10-14€15MAC Milan
2017-01-02€20MAC Milan
2017-06-08€25MAC Milan
2017-12-29€40MAC Milan
2018-06-07€40MAC Milan
2018-12-20€40MAC Milan
2019-03-01€50MAC Milan
2019-06-06€55MAC Milan
2019-12-12€55MAC Milan
2020-04-08€49.5MAC Milan
2020-08-25€60MAC Milan
2020-12-29€60MAC Milan
2021-05-25€60MAC Milan
2021-07-15€65MParis Saint-Germain
2021-12-16€65MParis Saint-Germain
2022-05-30€50MParis Saint-Germain
2022-11-02€50MParis Saint-Germain
2023-06-27€45MParis Saint-Germain
2023-12-18€40MParis Saint-Germain
2024-06-03€40MParis Saint-Germain
2024-12-10€35MParis Saint-Germain
2025-06-03€40MParis Saint-Germain
2025-12-09€45MManchester City
2026-06-03€45MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.066

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 86% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

The joint highest observed value among 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Donnarumma appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).