FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Mohammed

Salisu

CBGhana · AS Monaco

№ 563963Elite €8.3M +0.19

Player dossierLigue 1

MohammedSalisu

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
AS Monaco
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Ghana
Age
27
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Salisu at €10M. Model A, which never saw Salisu during training, estimates €8.3M: the market value is 21% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.19A €8.3M▲ +0.90B €4.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
3,111
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
34/39
Min / app
80
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Salisu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €8.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Mohammed Salisu's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 82nd, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 95th82ndGoals17thAssists55thMinutes62ndStarts45thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% defender median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2018
Peak
€18M
Jun 2022
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
Jun 2026€10MAS MonacoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, AS Monaco. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-02-23€100kReal Valladolid B
2018-05-30€100kReal Valladolid B
2019-02-19€250kReal Valladolid B
2019-06-29€250kReal Valladolid B
2019-09-10€2.5MReal Valladolid CF
2019-12-20€10MReal Valladolid CF
2020-03-05€12MReal Valladolid CF
2020-04-08€11MReal Valladolid CF
2020-07-23€12MReal Valladolid CF
2020-10-13€12MSouthampton FC
2021-03-18€10MSouthampton FC
2021-06-08€10MSouthampton FC
2021-12-23€10MSouthampton FC
2022-03-29€15MSouthampton FC
2022-06-15€18MSouthampton FC
2022-11-03€18MSouthampton FC
2023-06-20€18MSouthampton FC
2023-12-18€15MAS Monaco
2024-06-03€15MAS Monaco
2024-12-10€15MAS Monaco
2025-06-03€12MAS Monaco
2025-10-10€10MAS Monaco
2025-12-15€10MAS Monaco
2026-06-01€10MAS Monaco

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.190

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Salisu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).