FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Oğuz

Aydın

RWTürkiye · Fenerbahce

№ 563749Established €5.7M +0.20

Player dossierSüper Lig

OğuzAydın

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Fenerbahce
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
25
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aydın at €7M. Model A, which never saw Aydın during training, estimates €5.7M: the market value is 22% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.20A €5.7M▲ +0.51B €4.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
2,628
Goals
7
Assists
7
Started
27/59
Min / app
45
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aydın…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €5.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Oğuz Aydın's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 59th, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 78th45thGoals81stAssists59thMinutes28thStarts43rdRecent78thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.24 this player0.15 attacker median81st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2018
Peak
€11M
Jun 2025
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
20
2 club changes
May 2026€7MFenerbahceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, Fenerbahce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-07-04€50kBucaspor
2021-07-01€250kAlanyaspor
2021-10-12€500kAlanyaspor
2022-01-04€425kAlanyaspor
2022-03-31€1MAlanyaspor
2022-06-01€1.5MAlanyaspor
2022-10-27€2MAlanyaspor
2023-03-14€2.1MAlanyaspor
2023-06-08€2.2MAlanyaspor
2023-09-27€2.1MAlanyaspor
2023-12-21€2MAlanyaspor
2024-03-15€2.3MAlanyaspor
2024-05-31€4.3MAlanyaspor
2024-10-04€5.5MFenerbahce
2024-12-23€6MFenerbahce
2025-03-20€8MFenerbahce
2025-06-18€11MFenerbahce
2025-12-17€10MFenerbahce
2026-03-05€8MFenerbahce
2026-05-21€7MFenerbahce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.200

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 87% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 70% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Aydın appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).