Vaclav
Cerny
RWCzech Republic · Besiktas JK
Player dossierSüper Lig
VaclavCerny
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- Besiktas JK
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Czech Republic
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Cerny at €7M. Model A, which never saw Cerny during training, estimates €12.7M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.82. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €20.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 76
- Minutes
- 5,342
- Goals
- 23
- Assists
- 13
- Started
- 64/76
- Min / app
- 70
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cerny…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
5,342 this player2,242 attacker median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Mar 2015
- Peak
- €9M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €7M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 30
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €7M, Besiktas JK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-14 | €25k | Ajax Amsterdam U19 |
| 2015-07-01 | €50k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2015-11-11 | €500k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2016-02-05 | €900k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2016-07-15 | €2M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2017-01-18 | €2M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2017-06-07 | €2M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2018-01-17 | €2M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2018-06-12 | €1.5M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2018-12-28 | €1.3M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2019-01-21 | €1.3M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2019-06-12 | €1M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2019-12-18 | €800k | FC Utrecht |
| 2020-04-08 | €650k | FC Utrecht |
| 2020-10-14 | €800k | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2021-01-06 | €1M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2021-05-19 | €1M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-01-05 | €1M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-06-08 | €1M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-09-14 | €2M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-11-11 | €2.5M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2023-03-17 | €4M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2023-06-23 | €8M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2023-12-14 | €8M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2024-05-29 | €7M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2024-12-03 | €8M | Rangers FC |
| 2025-03-12 | €9M | Rangers FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €8M | Rangers FC |
| 2025-12-17 | €8M | Besiktas JK |
| 2026-05-21 | €7M | Besiktas JK |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.599
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 87% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 70% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Cerny appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- TaliscaAMFenerbahce · Süper Lig€7M
- HolseAMSamsunspor · Süper Lig€7M
- MüldürRBFenerbahce · Süper Lig€7M
- MurilloRBBesiktas JK · Süper Lig€7M
- LewandowskiCFFC Barcelona · attackers€7M
- BerardiRWUS Sassuolo · attackers€7M
- HonoratRWBorussia Mönchengladbach · attackers€7M
- ÜnalCFAFC Bournemouth · attackers€7M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).