FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Edoardo Bove

Edoardo

Bove

CMItaly · ACF Fiorentina

№ 562049Established €10.6M −0.75

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

EdoardoBove

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
ACF Fiorentina
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
23
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
17 Jun 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Bove at €5M. Model A, which never saw Bove during training, estimates €10.6M: the market value is 53% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.75A €10.6M▼ −0.58B €8.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
3,483
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
39/57
Min / app
61
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bove…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €10.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Edoardo Bove's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 35th, Assists per 90 64th, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 84th35thGoals64thAssists65thMinutes49thStarts26thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

20% this player0% midfielder median84th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jun 2021
Peak
€18M
Jun 2024
Model target
€5M
Jun 2025
Valuations
12
2 club changes
Jun 2025€5MACF FiorentinaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2025: €5M, ACF Fiorentina. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-30€300kRoma U19
2021-12-28€600kAS Roma
2022-03-15€800kAS Roma
2022-06-07€1.1MAS Roma
2022-11-11€1.5MAS Roma
2023-03-21€3MAS Roma
2023-06-15€10MAS Roma
2023-12-20€15MAS Roma
2024-06-05€18MAS Roma
2024-10-18€14MACF Fiorentina
2025-03-25€5MACF Fiorentina
2025-06-17€5MACF Fiorentina

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.753

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 45% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bove appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).