FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Joan García

Joan

García

GKSpain · FC Barcelona

№ 561613World Class €42M +0.07

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

JoanGarcía

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
194 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values García at €45M. Model A, which never saw García during training, estimates €42M: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €21.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €42M▲ +0.74B €21.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
83
Minutes
7,462
Started
83/83
Min / app
90
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for García…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €45M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €45MModel A €42M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Joan García's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 74th96thMinutes62ndStarts96thRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,462 this player2,790 goalkeeper median96th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2019
Peak
€45M
Jun 2026
Model target
€45M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
3 club changes
Jun 2026€45MFC BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €45M, FC Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-11-21€50kEspanyol Barcelona U19
2019-12-20€50kEspanyol Barcelona U19
2020-10-08€50kRCD Espanyol B
2021-01-08€150kRCD Espanyol B
2021-06-30€150kRCD Espanyol B
2021-12-30€400kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-06-03€400kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-11-07€400kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2023-06-13€400kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2023-12-20€400kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-06-24€800kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-10-11€10MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-12-27€10MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-03-21€20MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-06-09€25MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-12-12€30MFC Barcelona
2026-03-16€40MFC Barcelona
2026-06-05€45MFC Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.069

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 95% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

The joint highest observed value among 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Where García appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).