FairValue

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Kacper

Kozlowski

AMPoland · Gaziantep FK

№ 554284Established €4.5M +0.28

Player dossierSüper Lig

KacperKozlowski

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Gaziantep FK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Poland
Age
22
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kozlowski at €6M. Model A, which never saw Kozlowski during training, estimates €4.5M: the market value is 32% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.28A €4.5M▼ −0.17B €7.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
58
Minutes
4,781
Goals
10
Assists
8
Started
56/58
Min / app
82
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kozlowski…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €4.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Kacper Kozlowski's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 71st, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 95th, Minutes, last 365 days 85th, European club minutes 30th81stGoals71stAssists84thMinutes95thStarts85thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player69% midfielder median95th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2020
Peak
€10M
Dec 2021
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
May 2026€6MGaziantep FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, Gaziantep FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-15€50kPogon Szczecin
2021-01-19€1.5MPogon Szczecin
2021-05-31€5MPogon Szczecin
2021-10-15€8MPogon Szczecin
2021-12-31€10MPogon Szczecin
2022-04-12€9MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2022-05-26€8MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2022-11-11€8MVitesse Arnhem
2023-06-23€8MVitesse Arnhem
2023-10-17€5MVitesse Arnhem
2023-12-15€5MVitesse Arnhem
2024-05-31€5MVitesse Arnhem
2024-10-04€4.5MGaziantep FK
2024-12-23€4.5MGaziantep FK
2025-03-20€4.2MGaziantep FK
2025-06-18€4.2MGaziantep FK
2025-10-01€4.5MGaziantep FK
2025-12-17€5MGaziantep FK
2026-05-21€6MGaziantep FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.278

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 84% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kozlowski appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).