Ogün
Bayrak
RMTürkiye · Göztepe
Player dossierSüper Lig
OgünBayrak
RMRight MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Göztepe
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Türkiye
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Bayrak at €700k. Model A, which never saw Bayrak during training, estimates €742k: the market value is 6% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 40
- Minutes
- 2,209
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 27/40
- Min / app
- 55
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bayrak…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
68% this player69% midfielder median47th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €75k
- Dec 2019
- Peak
- €900k
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €700k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €700k, Göztepe. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-30 | €75k | Sancaktepe FK |
| 2020-12-30 | €75k | Ankara Keciörengücü |
| 2021-06-02 | €175k | Ankara Keciörengücü |
| 2022-01-17 | €225k | Ankara Keciörengücü |
| 2022-03-17 | €300k | Ankara Keciörengücü |
| 2022-06-10 | €300k | Ankara Keciörengücü |
| 2022-11-15 | €300k | Tuzlaspor |
| 2023-04-03 | €325k | Tuzlaspor |
| 2023-06-23 | €350k | Tuzlaspor |
| 2023-10-20 | €500k | Göztepe |
| 2023-12-29 | €600k | Göztepe |
| 2024-03-26 | €750k | Göztepe |
| 2024-06-13 | €750k | Göztepe |
| 2024-10-04 | €700k | Göztepe |
| 2024-12-23 | €850k | Göztepe |
| 2025-03-20 | €800k | Göztepe |
| 2025-06-18 | €900k | Göztepe |
| 2025-12-17 | €800k | Göztepe |
| 2026-05-21 | €700k | Göztepe |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.059
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 29% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bayrak appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- EsgaioRBFatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig€700k
- DenswilCBKayserispor · Süper Lig€700k
- AntalyalıDMCaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig€700k
- VerdeRWFatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig€700k
- RomeuDMSouthampton FC · midfielders€700k
- CoquelinDMFC Nantes · midfielders€700k
- MendyDMWatford FC · midfielders€700k
- PereyraCMAEK Athens · midfielders€700k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).