FairValue

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Stefano

Denswil

CBSuriname · Kayserispor

№ 182923Emerging €798k −0.13

Player dossierSüper Lig

StefanoDenswil

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Kayserispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Suriname
Age
33
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Denswil at €700k. Model A, which never saw Denswil during training, estimates €798k: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.13A €798k▼ −0.97B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
4,046
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
45/46
Min / app
88
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Denswil…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €798k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Stefano Denswil's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 92nd, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 77th60thGoals17thAssists70thMinutes92ndStarts82ndRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

98% this player83% defender median92nd percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2012
Peak
€6M
Jun 2019
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
38
7 club changes
May 2026€700kKayserisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Kayserispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-06-30€50kAjax Amsterdam U19
2013-01-09€300kAjax Amsterdam
2013-05-28€400kAjax Amsterdam
2013-09-26€600kAjax Amsterdam
2014-02-11€2.5MAjax Amsterdam
2014-08-11€3MAjax Amsterdam
2015-06-24€2.5MClub Brugge KV
2016-02-07€3MClub Brugge KV
2016-07-15€4MClub Brugge KV
2016-10-20€5MClub Brugge KV
2017-01-21€5MClub Brugge KV
2017-06-06€5MClub Brugge KV
2018-01-09€5MClub Brugge KV
2018-06-03€5MClub Brugge KV
2018-12-27€5MClub Brugge KV
2019-06-10€6MClub Brugge KV
2019-12-12€6MBologna FC 1909
2020-04-08€4.8MBologna FC 1909
2020-08-25€5MBologna FC 1909
2020-12-29€4MBologna FC 1909
2021-06-07€3.5MClub Brugge KV
2021-10-12€3MTrabzonspor
2022-01-04€3.4MTrabzonspor
2022-03-31€4MTrabzonspor
2022-06-01€4.2MTrabzonspor
2022-10-27€4.4MTrabzonspor
2023-03-14€4.2MTrabzonspor
2023-06-08€3.7MTrabzonspor
2023-09-27€3MTrabzonspor
2023-12-21€3.2MTrabzonspor
2024-03-15€3MTrabzonspor
2024-05-31€2.8MTrabzonspor
2024-10-04€2.6MTrabzonspor
2024-12-23€2.1MTrabzonspor
2025-04-04€1.5MWithout Club
2025-10-01€1MKayserispor
2025-12-17€800kKayserispor
2026-05-21€700kKayserispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.132

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 29% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Denswil appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).