FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Samed

Onur

CMTürkiye · Genclerbirligi Ankara

№ 538864Emerging €353k +0.68

Player dossierSüper Lig

SamedOnur

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Genclerbirligi Ankara
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
23
Height
175 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Onur at €700k. Model A, which never saw Onur during training, estimates €353k: the market value is 98% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.98. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €519k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.68A €353k▲ +0.30B €519k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
595
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
4/25
Min / app
24
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Onur…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €353k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Samed Onur's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 71st, Minutes, two years 3rd, Starts 1st, Minutes, last 365 days 16th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals71stAssists3rdMinutes1stStarts16thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.15 this player0.09 midfielder median71st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Feb 2021
Peak
€700k
May 2026
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
May 2026€700kGenclerbirligi AnkaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Genclerbirligi Ankara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-02-10€400kBayer 04 Leverkusen U19
2021-06-09€500kBayer 04 Leverkusen U19
2021-10-12€375kFatih Karagümrük
2022-01-04€325kFatih Karagümrük
2022-03-31€300kFatih Karagümrük
2022-06-01€500kFatih Karagümrük
2022-10-27€450kFatih Karagümrük
2023-03-14€450kFatih Karagümrük
2023-06-08€375kFatih Karagümrük
2023-09-27€350kFatih Karagümrük
2023-12-21€300kFatih Karagümrük
2024-03-26€300kSakaryaspor
2024-06-13€400kSakaryaspor
2024-10-16€350kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2025-01-09€350kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2025-04-02€350kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2025-06-25€350kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2025-12-17€500kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2026-05-21€700kGenclerbirligi Ankara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.683

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 29% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Onur appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).