FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Jeppe

Erenbjerg

AMDenmark · Zulte Waregem

№ 543302Established €3.1M +0.24

Player dossierPro League

JeppeErenbjerg

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Zulte Waregem
League
Pro League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
26
Height
184 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Erenbjerg at €4M. Model A, which never saw Erenbjerg during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €3.1M▼ −0.03B €4.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
2,776
Goals
13
Assists
5
Started
32/35
Min / app
79
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Erenbjerg…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jeppe Erenbjerg's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 53rd, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 30th98thGoals74thAssists53rdMinutes89thStarts87thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.42 this player0.08 midfielder median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2018
Peak
€4M
Jun 2026
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
1 club change
Jun 2026€4MZulte WaregemValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Zulte Waregem. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€25kBoldklubben af 1893
2020-03-09€50kBoldklubben af 1893
2023-09-19€25kBoldklubben af 1893
2023-12-21€150kBoldklubben af 1893
2024-06-18€250kBoldklubben af 1893
2024-10-15€400kZulte Waregem
2024-12-20€750kZulte Waregem
2025-04-24€1MZulte Waregem
2025-12-10€3MZulte Waregem
2026-06-04€4MZulte Waregem

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.241

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 78% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Erenbjerg appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).