FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Mathias

Kjølø

DMNorway · FC Twente Enschede

№ 528652Emerging €2.1M −0.72

Player dossierEredivisie

MathiasKjølø

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Twente Enschede
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Norway
Age
24
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kjølø at €1M. Model A, which never saw Kjølø during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 51% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.72A €2.1M▼ −0.97B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
1,859
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
17/53
Min / app
35
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kjølø…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mathias Kjølø's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 28th, Minutes, two years 33rd, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 77th10thGoals28thAssists33rdMinutes6thStarts17thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

15% this player0% midfielder median77th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2020
Peak
€5M
May 2024
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
19
1 club change
May 2026€1MFC Twente EnschedeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, FC Twente Enschede. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-12€25kPSV Eindhoven U21
2020-10-24€50kPSV Eindhoven U21
2020-12-31€200kPSV Eindhoven U21
2021-03-16€250kPSV Eindhoven U21
2022-01-12€500kPSV Eindhoven U21
2022-06-23€650kPSV Eindhoven U21
2022-09-14€900kFC Twente Enschede
2022-11-11€1.2MFC Twente Enschede
2023-06-23€1.2MFC Twente Enschede
2023-10-17€1.8MFC Twente Enschede
2023-12-15€2.8MFC Twente Enschede
2024-03-18€3.5MFC Twente Enschede
2024-05-31€5MFC Twente Enschede
2024-10-14€4MFC Twente Enschede
2024-12-17€2.8MFC Twente Enschede
2025-03-28€1.8MFC Twente Enschede
2025-05-28€1.5MFC Twente Enschede
2025-12-02€1.5MFC Twente Enschede
2026-05-28€1MFC Twente Enschede

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.722

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 46% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kjølø appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).