Kristian
Kirkegaard
RWDenmark · AC Horsens
Player dossierSuperliga
KristianKirkegaard
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- AC Horsens
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 174 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Kirkegaard at €450k. Model A, which never saw Kirkegaard during training, estimates €400k: the market value is 13% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €501k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 21
- Minutes
- 1,356
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 14/21
- Min / app
- 65
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kirkegaard…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
67% this player59% attacker median63rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Dec 2017
- Peak
- €500k
- Dec 2023
- Model target
- €450k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 17
- 3 club changes
Dec 2025: €450k, AC Horsens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-18 | €25k | Kolding IF |
| 2018-03-02 | €50k | Kolding IF |
| 2018-12-21 | €75k | Kolding IF |
| 2019-09-09 | €200k | FC Fredericia |
| 2019-12-22 | €300k | FC Fredericia |
| 2020-07-31 | €350k | FC Fredericia |
| 2020-12-23 | €300k | FC Fredericia |
| 2021-06-04 | €350k | FC Fredericia |
| 2021-12-28 | €350k | FC Fredericia |
| 2022-06-20 | €400k | FC Fredericia |
| 2022-12-22 | €400k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2023-06-26 | €450k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2023-12-21 | €500k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2024-06-10 | €400k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2024-12-09 | €400k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2025-06-16 | €350k | Vejle Boldklub |
| 2025-12-18 | €450k | AC Horsens |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.119
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 23% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 14% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Kirkegaard appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrétarssonCBSönderjyske Fodbold · Superliga€450k
- BrandhofCMAC Horsens · Superliga€450k
- BuurRBLyngby Boldklub · Superliga€450k
- NielsenLBAalborg BK · Superliga€450k
- OzegovicCFLevadiakos · attackers€450k
- MarkovCFUral Yekaterinburg · attackers€450k
- AlshinLWFakel Voronezh · attackers€450k
- PetersonLWFortuna Sittard · attackers€450k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).