FairValue

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Ilnur

Alshin

LWRussia · Fakel Voronezh

№ 179973Emerging €357k +0.23

Player dossierPremier Liga

IlnurAlshin

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Fakel Voronezh
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
32
Height
175 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Alshin at €450k. Model A, which never saw Alshin during training, estimates €357k: the market value is 26% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €398k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.23A €357k▲ +0.12B €398k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,923
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
37/40
Min / app
73
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alshin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €357k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ilnur Alshin's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 9th, Assists per 90 19th, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 28th9thGoals19thAssists65thMinutes97thStarts18thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

93% this player59% attacker median97th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Apr 2011
Peak
€700k
Jun 2023
Model target
€450k
Dec 2025
Valuations
23
6 club changes
Dec 2025€450kFakel VoronezhValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €450k, Fakel Voronezh. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-04-25€25kSpartak Moskow II
2015-08-26€100kFakel Voronezh
2016-01-10€200kFakel Voronezh
2016-07-01€300kFakel Voronezh
2016-12-24€300kFakel Voronezh
2017-06-01€400kFC Tosno
2018-06-06€600kAvangard Kursk
2018-12-20€600kAvangard Kursk
2019-06-14€500kFK Tambov
2019-12-23€550kBaltika Kaliningrad
2020-04-08€450kBaltika Kaliningrad
2020-06-29€450kBaltika Kaliningrad
2020-12-29€450kBaltika Kaliningrad
2021-05-24€450kBaltika Kaliningrad
2021-12-07€500kBaltika Kaliningrad
2022-05-30€550kBaltika Kaliningrad
2022-11-21€550kFakel Voronezh
2023-06-14€700kFakel Voronezh
2023-12-13€700kFakel Voronezh
2024-06-04€700kFakel Voronezh
2024-12-12€700kFakel Voronezh
2025-06-04€500kFakel Voronezh
2025-12-03€450kFakel Voronezh

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.231

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 14% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Alshin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).