Kervin
Arriaga
DMHonduras · Levante UD
Player dossierLaLiga
KervinArriaga
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Levante UD
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Honduras
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Arriaga at €2M. Model A, which never saw Arriaga during training, estimates €5M: the market value is 60% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.50. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 33
- Minutes
- 2,010
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 21/33
- Min / app
- 61
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Arriaga…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
22% this player0% midfielder median87th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Dec 2021
- Peak
- €2M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €2M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €2M, Levante UD. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-29 | €200k | CD Marathón |
| 2022-08-18 | €1M | Minnesota United FC |
| 2022-11-08 | €1M | Minnesota United FC |
| 2023-08-22 | €1M | Minnesota United FC |
| 2023-12-18 | €1M | Minnesota United FC |
| 2024-06-13 | €1.5M | Minnesota United FC |
| 2024-12-27 | €1.5M | FK Partizan Belgrade |
| 2025-06-24 | €1.5M | Real Zaragoza |
| 2025-12-12 | €1.5M | Levante UD |
| 2026-06-05 | €2M | Levante UD |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.917
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Arriaga appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GudeljDMSevilla FC · LaLiga€2M
- GalarretaCMAthletic Bilbao · LaLiga€2M
- ToljanRBLevante UD · LaLiga€2M
- DimitrievskiGKValencia CF · LaLiga€2M
- GündoğanCMGalatasaray · midfielders€2M
- HazardAMRSC Anderlecht · midfielders€2M
- McGregorDMCeltic FC · midfielders€2M
- KhediraDM1.FC Union Berlin · midfielders€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).