FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jack

Iredale

CBAustralia · Hibernian FC

№ 524537Emerging €948k −1.33

Player dossierPremiership

JackIredale

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Hibernian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Australia
Age
30
Height
184 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Iredale at €250k. Model A, which never saw Iredale during training, estimates €948k: the market value is 74% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.79. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.33A €948k▼ −1.81B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
4,970
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
57/63
Min / app
79
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Iredale…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €948k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jack Iredale's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 39th, Assists per 90 48th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 72nd39thGoals48thAssists83rdMinutes70thStarts86thRecent72ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,876 this player1,687 defender median86th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2018
Peak
€300k
Jul 2022
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
13
2 club changes
May 2026€250kHibernian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, Hibernian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-01-25€25kGreenock Morton FC
2019-01-03€150kGreenock Morton FC
2019-06-23€250kGreenock Morton FC
2022-07-29€300kBolton Wanderers
2023-04-05€300kBolton Wanderers
2023-06-09€250kBolton Wanderers
2023-12-27€250kBolton Wanderers
2024-06-28€250kBolton Wanderers
2024-12-03€250kHibernian FC
2025-03-12€300kHibernian FC
2025-06-17€250kHibernian FC
2025-12-10€250kHibernian FC
2026-05-20€250kHibernian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.333

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 32% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Iredale appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).