FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Rocky

Bushiri

CBDR Congo · Hibernian FC

№ 511802Emerging €1.2M −0.20

Player dossierPremiership

RockyBushiri

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Hibernian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
DR Congo
Age
26
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bushiri at €1M. Model A, which never saw Bushiri during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €1.2M▼ −1.02B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
4,857
Goals
9
Assists
2
Started
52/56
Min / app
87
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bushiri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Rocky Bushiri's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 48th, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 76th96thGoals48thAssists82ndMinutes78thStarts81stRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.17 this player0.03 defender median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2017
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
24
6 club changes
May 2026€1MHibernian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, Hibernian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-25€50kKV Oostende (-2024)
2018-01-09€150kKV Oostende (-2024)
2018-06-03€300kKV Oostende (-2024)
2018-09-11€500kKAS Eupen
2018-12-27€900kKAS Eupen
2019-06-10€1.2MKAS Eupen
2020-03-30€1.2MSint-Truidense VV
2020-04-08€1MSint-Truidense VV
2020-10-16€850kKV Mechelen
2021-01-04€700kKV Mechelen
2021-06-07€600kKAS Eupen
2021-12-23€600kNorwich City
2022-06-15€600kNorwich City
2022-06-27€500kNorwich City
2022-12-13€400kHibernian FC
2023-06-26€400kHibernian FC
2023-12-05€500kHibernian FC
2024-05-30€400kHibernian FC
2024-12-03€400kHibernian FC
2025-03-12€800kHibernian FC
2025-06-17€900kHibernian FC
2025-10-08€1MHibernian FC
2025-12-10€900kHibernian FC
2026-05-20€1MHibernian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.201

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 72% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bushiri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).