FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Viljami

Sinisalo

GKFinland · Celtic FC

№ 484838Emerging €2M −0.69

Player dossierPremiership

ViljamiSinisalo

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Celtic FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Finland
Age
24
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sinisalo at €1M. Model A, which never saw Sinisalo during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 50% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.69A €2M▼ −0.49B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
1,620
Started
17/17
Min / app
95
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sinisalo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Viljami Sinisalo's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 68th32ndMinutes62ndStarts41stRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

6% this player0% goalkeeper median68th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jan 2021
Peak
€1M
Jun 2025
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
10
4 club changes
May 2026€1MCeltic FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, Celtic FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-18€200kAyr United FC
2022-07-29€200kBurton Albion
2023-03-16€400kAston Villa
2023-06-20€500kAston Villa
2023-12-27€600kExeter City
2024-10-02€800kCeltic FC
2024-12-03€800kCeltic FC
2025-06-17€1MCeltic FC
2025-12-10€1MCeltic FC
2026-05-20€1MCeltic FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.691

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 72% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 48% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sinisalo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).