Nathan
Wood
CBEngland · Southampton FC
Player dossierPremier League
NathanWood
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Southampton FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Wood at €4M. Model A, which never saw Wood during training, estimates €2.8M: the market value is 44% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €798k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 13
- Minutes
- 879
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 10/13
- Min / app
- 68
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wood…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
77% this player83% defender median38th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Sept 2020
- Peak
- €5M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €4M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 13
- 2 club changes
Dec 2025: €4M, Southampton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-11 | €250k | Middlesbrough FC |
| 2020-10-15 | €300k | Middlesbrough FC |
| 2021-06-30 | €300k | Middlesbrough FC |
| 2022-05-13 | €300k | Middlesbrough FC |
| 2022-09-14 | €900k | Swansea City |
| 2022-10-27 | €1.2M | Swansea City |
| 2023-06-01 | €5M | Swansea City |
| 2023-12-21 | €4M | Swansea City |
| 2024-05-24 | €3.8M | Swansea City |
| 2024-12-16 | €3.8M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €3.5M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-10-06 | €4M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-12-03 | €4M | Southampton FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.365
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Wood appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OrtegaGKNottingham Forest · Premier League€4M
- AreolaGKWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- WilsonCFWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- BarkleyCMAston Villa · Premier League€4M
- KolasinacCBAtalanta BC · defenders€4M
- TagliaficoLBOlympique Lyon · defenders€4M
- BurnCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
- SchärCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).