FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Min-jae

Kim

CBKorea, South · Bayern Munich

№ 503482Elite €26.2M −0.27

Player dossierBundesliga

Min-jaeKim

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Bayern Munich
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Korea, South
Age
29
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kim at €20M. Model A, which never saw Kim during training, estimates €26.2M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.27A €26.2M▲ +0.23B €15.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
80
Minutes
5,644
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
66/80
Min / app
71
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kim…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €26.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Min-jae Kim's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 90th, Starts 50th, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 90th72ndGoals35thAssists90thMinutes50thStarts63rdRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

25% this player0% defender median90th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.2M
Dec 2017
Peak
€60M
Jun 2023
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
23
4 club changes
May 2026€20MBayern MunichValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-12-15€1.2MJeonbuk Hyundai Motors
2019-03-21€1MBeijing Guoan
2019-09-05€1MBeijing Guoan
2019-12-27€1MBeijing Guoan
2020-04-08€800kBeijing Guoan
2020-08-01€1.5MBeijing Guoan
2020-12-26€2MBeijing Guoan
2021-10-12€6.5MFenerbahce
2022-01-04€9MFenerbahce
2022-03-31€11MFenerbahce
2022-06-01€14MFenerbahce
2022-09-27€25MSSC Napoli
2022-11-11€35MSSC Napoli
2023-03-21€50MSSC Napoli
2023-06-15€60MSSC Napoli
2023-12-14€60MBayern Munich
2024-03-27€55MBayern Munich
2024-05-29€45MBayern Munich
2024-12-20€45MBayern Munich
2025-06-05€40MBayern Munich
2025-10-14€32MBayern Munich
2025-12-19€25MBayern Munich
2026-05-27€20MBayern Munich

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.269

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 82% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kim appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).