FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Iva

Gelashvili

CBGeorgia · Panserraikos

№ 502669Emerging €676k −0.30

Player dossierSuper League

IvaGelashvili

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Panserraikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Georgia
Age
25
Height
192 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gelashvili at €500k. Model A, which never saw Gelashvili during training, estimates €676k: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €676k▼ −0.99B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
1,506
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
16/21
Min / app
72
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gelashvili…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €676k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Iva Gelashvili's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 70th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 68th70thGoals17thAssists23rdMinutes37thStarts44thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.06 this player0.03 defender median70th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2020
Peak
€550k
May 2025
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
6 club changes
Jun 2026€500kPanserraikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Panserraikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-12-27€100kAC Sparta Prague B
2021-06-25€100kAC Sparta Prague B
2021-12-26€200kAC Sparta Prague B
2022-06-22€200kAC Sparta Prague B
2022-10-20€200kSioni Bolnisi
2023-05-25€250kFC Saburtalo
2023-07-12€500kDinamo Batumi
2023-12-27€450kSpezia Calcio
2024-06-03€450kSpezia Calcio
2024-09-25€400kIberia 1999 Tbilisi
2024-12-23€400kIberia 1999 Tbilisi
2025-05-26€550kIberia 1999 Tbilisi
2025-12-12€500kPanserraikos
2026-06-04€500kPanserraikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.302

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 43% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gelashvili appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).