FairValue

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Kirill

Pechenin

LBBelarus · Krylya Sovetov Samara

№ 498015Emerging €1.5M −0.25

Player dossierPremier Liga

KirillPechenin

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Krylya Sovetov Samara
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Belarus
Age
29
Height
176 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pechenin at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Pechenin during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €1.5M▼ −1.18B €3.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
4,570
Goals
3
Assists
6
Started
48/72
Min / app
63
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pechenin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kirill Pechenin's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 30th69thGoals81stAssists77thMinutes23rdStarts86thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,876 this player1,687 defender median86th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2017
Peak
€1.2M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
21
5 club changes
May 2026€1.2MKrylya Sovetov SamaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Krylya Sovetov Samara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-14€50kNaftan Novopolotsk
2017-11-30€150kNaftan Novopolotsk
2018-06-01€150kFK Vitebsk
2018-12-04€300kFK Vitebsk
2019-07-25€350kFK Vitebsk
2019-12-09€400kFK Vitebsk
2020-04-08€325kDynamo Brest
2020-07-03€350kDynamo Brest
2020-12-08€450kDynamo Brest
2021-06-25€550kRukh Brest (- 2022)
2021-12-09€600kRukh Brest (- 2022)
2022-05-30€600kFC Orenburg
2022-11-21€800kFC Orenburg
2023-06-14€700kFC Orenburg
2023-12-13€500kFC Orenburg
2024-06-04€500kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-12-12€600kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-06-04€750kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-09-18€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-12-16€1.2MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2026-05-26€1.2MKrylya Sovetov Samara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.255

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 51% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pechenin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).