FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Reo

Hatate

CMJapan · Celtic FC

№ 496656Elite €5.7M +0.56

Player dossierPremiership

ReoHatate

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Celtic FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Japan
Age
28
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hatate at €10M. Model A, which never saw Hatate during training, estimates €5.7M: the market value is 75% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.56A €5.7M▼ −0.07B €10.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
90
Minutes
5,892
Goals
15
Assists
12
Started
66/90
Min / app
65
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hatate…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €5.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Reo Hatate's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 58th, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 91st87thGoals80thAssists94thMinutes58thStarts83rdRecent91stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,892 this player2,607 midfielder median94th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2019
Peak
€13M
Jun 2025
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
17
1 club change
May 2026€10MCeltic FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Celtic FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-05€50kKawasaki Frontale
2019-12-27€50kKawasaki Frontale
2021-01-29€600kKawasaki Frontale
2021-06-29€800kKawasaki Frontale
2022-01-14€1.2MCeltic FC
2022-06-27€2.5MCeltic FC
2022-12-13€4.3MCeltic FC
2023-03-22€6.5MCeltic FC
2023-06-26€11MCeltic FC
2023-12-05€11MCeltic FC
2024-03-20€10MCeltic FC
2024-05-30€10MCeltic FC
2024-12-03€11MCeltic FC
2025-06-17€13MCeltic FC
2025-12-10€12MCeltic FC
2026-03-05€10MCeltic FC
2026-05-20€10MCeltic FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.561

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

8th highest observed value among 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hatate appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).