FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Lucas Da Cunha

Lucas Da

Cunha

CMFrance · Como 1907

№ 495667Elite €26.9M −0.30

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

Lucas DaCunha

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Como 1907
League
Serie A
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cunha at €20M. Model A, which never saw Cunha during training, estimates €26.9M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €17.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €26.9M▲ +0.11B €17.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
79
Minutes
5,908
Goals
11
Assists
7
Started
67/79
Min / app
75
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cunha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €26.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Lucas Da Cunha's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 30th76thGoals55thAssists94thMinutes78thStarts94thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,908 this player2,607 midfielder median94th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
Mar 2020
Peak
€20M
Mar 2026
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
17
5 club changes
May 2026€20MComo 1907Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, Como 1907. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-03-13€2MStade Rennais FC
2020-04-08€1.8MStade Rennais FC
2020-12-28€1.8MFC Lausanne-Sport
2021-06-23€3MFC Lausanne-Sport
2021-12-16€3MOGC Nice
2022-05-30€4MClermont Foot 63
2022-11-02€3MOGC Nice
2023-06-12€2.2MComo 1907
2023-12-27€2MComo 1907
2024-03-25€2.8MComo 1907
2024-06-03€6.5MComo 1907
2024-12-18€6MComo 1907
2025-03-25€7MComo 1907
2025-06-17€10MComo 1907
2025-12-23€15MComo 1907
2026-03-24€20MComo 1907
2026-05-29€20MComo 1907

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.296

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 82% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 88% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cunha appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).