FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Víctor

Chust

CBSpain · Elche CF

№ 495625Established €3.2M +0.10

Player dossierLaLiga

VíctorChust

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Elche CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
26
Height
184 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chust at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Chust during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €3.2M▲ +0.27B €2.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
2,301
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
24/33
Min / app
70
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chust…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €3.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Víctor Chust's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 56th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 40th, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 30th56thGoals17thAssists40thMinutes31stStarts71stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,301 this player1,687 defender median71st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2019
Peak
€4M
Dec 2025
Model target
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
2 club changes
Jun 2026€3.5MElche CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3.5M, Elche CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-10€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2020-02-11€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2020-10-08€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2021-01-08€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2021-02-19€400kReal Madrid Castilla
2021-06-30€400kReal Madrid Castilla
2021-10-13€1MCádiz CF
2021-12-30€1MCádiz CF
2022-06-03€2.5MCádiz CF
2022-11-07€3MCádiz CF
2023-06-13€2.5MCádiz CF
2023-10-13€2MCádiz CF
2023-12-22€1.5MCádiz CF
2024-06-07€2MCádiz CF
2024-12-13€2MCádiz CF
2025-06-24€2MCádiz CF
2025-10-02€2.5MElche CF
2025-12-12€4MElche CF
2026-06-05€3.5MElche CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.098

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 47% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 63% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chust appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).