FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Diego

Luna

CBVenezuela · Baltika Kaliningrad

№ 490496Emerging €1.2M −0.91

Player dossierPremier Liga

DiegoLuna

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Baltika Kaliningrad
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Venezuela
Age
25
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Luna at €500k. Model A, which never saw Luna during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 60% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €757k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.91A €1.2M▼ −0.41B €757k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,968
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
23/26
Min / app
76
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Luna…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Diego Luna's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 33rd, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 7th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists33rdMinutes65thStarts7thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player83% defender median65th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2017
Peak
€800k
Jun 2024
Model target
€500k
Dec 2025
Valuations
20
7 club changes
Dec 2025€500kBaltika KaliningradValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €500k, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-06-30€50kUnknown
2017-10-10€100kDeportivo La Guaira
2017-12-04€150kDeportivo La Guaira
2018-06-07€150kDeportivo La Guaira
2018-09-24€150kDeportivo La Guaira
2018-12-23€175kDeportivo La Guaira
2019-05-03€200kDeportivo La Guaira
2019-08-05€225kDeportivo La Guaira
2019-11-11€250kDeportivo La Guaira
2020-12-20€200kRSD Alcalá
2021-06-05€200kZamora FC
2021-10-18€200kZamora FC
2022-06-06€200kZamora FC
2022-10-31€250kZamora FC
2023-07-19€250kCaracas FC
2024-01-04€300kCaracas FC
2024-06-04€800kBaltika Kaliningrad
2024-12-12€700kFC Khimki
2025-06-04€500kFC Khimki
2025-12-16€500kBaltika Kaliningrad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.905

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Luna appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).