FairValue

Checking model

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Portrait of Djed Spence

Djed

Spence

LBEngland · Tottenham Hotspur

№ 483348World Class €24.5M +0.20

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierPremier League

DjedSpence

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Tottenham Hotspur
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
25
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Spence at €30M. Model A, which never saw Spence during training, estimates €24.5M: the market value is 22% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €30.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.20A €24.5M▼ −0.01B €30.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
5,127
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
56/75
Min / app
68
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Spence…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €24.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Djed Spence's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 34th, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 83rd38thGoals47thAssists85thMinutes34thStarts89thRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,024 this player1,687 defender median89th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
Feb 2020
Peak
€32M
Dec 2025
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
6 club changes
Jun 2026€30MTottenham HotspurValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, Tottenham Hotspur. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-02-27€2MMiddlesbrough FC
2020-04-08€1.8MMiddlesbrough FC
2020-10-15€2MMiddlesbrough FC
2021-03-10€2MMiddlesbrough FC
2021-06-30€2MMiddlesbrough FC
2021-11-24€2.5MNottingham Forest
2022-05-13€8MNottingham Forest
2022-09-15€13MTottenham Hotspur
2022-11-03€13MTottenham Hotspur
2023-06-27€10MStade Rennais FC
2023-10-27€8MLeeds United
2023-12-21€8MLeeds United
2024-06-05€8MGenoa CFC
2024-12-16€8MTottenham Hotspur
2025-03-18€15MTottenham Hotspur
2025-05-30€20MTottenham Hotspur
2025-10-17€30MTottenham Hotspur
2025-12-09€32MTottenham Hotspur
2026-03-09€30MTottenham Hotspur
2026-06-03€30MTottenham Hotspur

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.202

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 73% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Spence appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).