FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Magnus

Warming

RWDenmark · Lyngby Boldklub

№ 482107Emerging €602k −0.54

Player dossierSuperliga

MagnusWarming

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Lyngby Boldklub
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
25
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Warming at €350k. Model A, which never saw Warming during training, estimates €602k: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.54A €602k▼ −1.21B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
647
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/14
Min / app
46
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Warming…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €602k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Magnus Warming's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 7th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 83rd3rdGoals6thAssists7thMinutes35thStarts1stRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

19% this player0% attacker median83rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2019
Peak
€1M
Oct 2021
Model target
€350k
Dec 2025
Valuations
16
5 club changes
Dec 2025€350kLyngby BoldklubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €350k, Lyngby Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-24€50kNyköbing FC
2019-09-09€150kNyköbing FC
2019-12-22€150kNyköbing FC
2020-07-31€300kLyngby Boldklub
2020-12-23€350kLyngby Boldklub
2021-06-04€700kLyngby Boldklub
2021-10-14€1MTorino FC
2021-12-28€1MTorino FC
2022-06-07€900kTorino FC
2022-11-30€800kSV Darmstadt 98
2023-06-28€700kSV Darmstadt 98
2023-12-15€700kSK Brann
2024-06-12€700kSK Brann
2024-12-09€550kLyngby Boldklub
2025-06-16€450kLyngby Boldklub
2025-12-18€350kLyngby Boldklub

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.542

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 14% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 10% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Warming appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).