FairValue

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Marcos

André

CFBrazil · Real Valladolid CF

№ 481084Emerging €1.5M −0.62

Player dossierLaLiga

MarcosAndré

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Real Valladolid CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Brazil
Age
29
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
30 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values André at €800k. Model A, which never saw André during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 46% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.85. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €729k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.62A €1.5M▲ +0.09B €729k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,307
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
15/24
Min / app
54
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for André…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Marcos André's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 37th, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 28th37thGoals46thAssists27thMinutes56thStarts26thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

63% this player59% attacker median56th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2017
Peak
€8.5M
Oct 2021
Model target
€800k
Dec 2025
Valuations
26
6 club changes
Dec 2025€800kReal Valladolid CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €800k, Real Valladolid CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-06-30€100kCelta Vigo B
2018-01-01€400kUD Logroñés
2018-05-30€400kUD Logroñés
2019-02-19€400kUD Logroñés
2019-06-29€400kGuaratinguetá (SP)
2019-12-20€800kCD Mirandés
2020-04-08€650kCD Mirandés
2020-10-08€900kReal Valladolid CF
2020-11-23€1.5MReal Valladolid CF
2021-01-05€4MReal Valladolid CF
2021-06-10€3.5MReal Valladolid CF
2021-10-13€8.5MValencia CF
2021-12-30€8.5MValencia CF
2022-03-21€7MValencia CF
2022-06-03€5MValencia CF
2022-11-07€4MValencia CF
2023-03-23€3MValencia CF
2023-06-13€2.5MValencia CF
2023-12-20€2.2MReal Valladolid CF
2024-03-26€2MReal Valladolid CF
2024-06-24€2MReal Valladolid CF
2024-10-11€1.5MReal Valladolid CF
2024-12-27€1.5MReal Valladolid CF
2025-03-21€1.2MReal Valladolid CF
2025-06-09€1MReal Valladolid CF
2025-12-30€800kReal Valladolid CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.616

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 5% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where André appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).