FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Juan

Foyth

CBArgentina · Villarreal CF

№ 480763Established €5.1M +0.44

Player dossierLaLiga

JuanFoyth

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Villarreal CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Argentina
Age
28
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Foyth at €8M. Model A, which never saw Foyth during training, estimates €5.1M: the market value is 56% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.44A €5.1M▲ +1.57B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
2,831
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
34/37
Min / app
77
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Foyth…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €5.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Juan Foyth's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 38th, European club minutes 74th50thGoals17thAssists49thMinutes76thStarts38thRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player83% defender median76th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€5M
Aug 2017
Peak
€25M
Jun 2022
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
1 club change
Jun 2026€8MVillarreal CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Villarreal CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-30€5MTottenham Hotspur
2018-01-02€5MTottenham Hotspur
2018-05-28€5MTottenham Hotspur
2018-12-19€8MTottenham Hotspur
2019-03-05€12MTottenham Hotspur
2019-06-13€15MTottenham Hotspur
2019-12-10€15MTottenham Hotspur
2020-04-08€13.5MTottenham Hotspur
2020-10-08€13MVillarreal CF
2021-01-05€10MVillarreal CF
2021-06-10€12MVillarreal CF
2021-10-13€15MVillarreal CF
2021-12-30€20MVillarreal CF
2022-06-03€25MVillarreal CF
2022-11-07€25MVillarreal CF
2023-06-13€25MVillarreal CF
2023-12-22€25MVillarreal CF
2024-03-21€18MVillarreal CF
2024-06-07€15MVillarreal CF
2024-10-11€12MVillarreal CF
2024-12-27€7.5MVillarreal CF
2025-03-21€10MVillarreal CF
2025-06-09€15MVillarreal CF
2025-12-12€15MVillarreal CF
2026-03-16€10MVillarreal CF
2026-06-05€8MVillarreal CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.442

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 68% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Foyth appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).